guys,, i know we dont have much time to discuss about the decision tree. so, i make it for my own decision based on my knowledge and experience on decision tree. it changed a little bit from my previous one. if you want to use it as well, you can just change the consequences number (-5 to 5) and change the probability, or add some new consequences. I assign the probability and consequences number on my own opinion after reading the other post in the blog. the blow up probability is based on last season blow up accident, stated in the movie (i hope i am right about the number, do not check it again)
so, my decision is to race, because the consequences of race (1.23) is better than no race (-1.5). the decision race will not be a very good decision, but no race is a bad decision. this is the dilemma. this decision is my personal decision, and not to push my decision as group decision. it is just my personal way of thinking.
Andreas
I would like to comment on the start of your decision tree. I think that we cannot calculate the probabilities of engine blow or not that way. There are many factors that are related to these probabilities (eg the temperature, the track etc) that you have not taken into consideration when you calculate them.
ReplyDeleteChris
its all based on our assumptions. the decision tree is just a tool. to use it properly we need to gather a lot of data, or have enermous discussion to determine the probabilty and the consequences value.
ReplyDeletebecause i do it on my own oppinion, it is likely that many factors are not taken into considerations.
The decision tree is actually the tool for convergence, after we define all consideration we could. we keep on divergence step if we not thinking about how to converge our oppinion and start again to state our decision and the reason and hope that we can achieve consensus.
I would care more for the way we got our decision rather than the decision itself.
ReplyDeleteI'm not quite sure I understand your last post Andreas. You said "I would care more about the way". My comment was exactly for the way you made your decision. (decision tree) :)
ReplyDeleteI am sorry if I got it wrong, maybe you can explain what you meant.
no, I got your point on the imperfect decision tree. There are many factor that influence the probability and the consequences damage. Thats why, if we can, i would be very happy to make it perfect.
ReplyDeletebecause we can decide on the component of the decision rather than only the decision yes/no. for instance (just an example), we can discuss on depth the probability of Sir Raplh keep investing on our racing team (rather than, some body say he will, some body say no, the other dont address the issues).
my second comment is my view in solving this dilemma. it is more easy that we agree on how we gonna solve this, rather than agree on the decision. sorry if it make you feel you are on the wrong side.
I agree with you that everybody should argue about his/her decision, and I most of us so far did.
ReplyDeleteWhat I dont understand is what you mean by " it is more easy that we agree on how we gonna solve this, rather than agree on the decision".
I am not feeling that I am in the wrong side. I know I am in the right one. :P
:D
ReplyDeleteif we have agree on how we are going to solve the problem, then we should agree on the decision...
for example, we choose the voting mechanism as our convergence way (making the group's decision) and every body agreed. then, the voting result will be absolute (for example: not racing). if any body still try to break the decision, it means that he/she are not consistent with the agreement before, on how we are going to solve the problem.
if you compare now, which one is easier:
1. to make people agree for voting mechanism
2. to make poeple agree to not racing (the result of voting)
for the point 2, i mean with out voting or any agreement on how to solve the problem.
ReplyDeleteI still say race, but not based on the probabilities in your decision tree. I don't think you can calculate them, so how did you get these numbers?
ReplyDeleteMy reason for wanting to race is that it is the best option for the deal to go through, because sponsors mostly want to see the sponsored party in action.
x Rianne
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ReplyDelete@ rianne: its my personal decision. the probability is my own opinion. you have the decision on your mind (decide race or not race). what i have on mind is not to race or not race, but the component of the decision, then use the decision tree to find my decision. the number is only to help.
ReplyDelete