Friday, November 19, 2010
Decision tree for convergence
I have made a new decision tree with probability and consequences for our decision convergence. we can now started discuss the probability and the value of the consequences (or we can based it on our previous discussion on race or no race). The value could be positive (if it is a gain) and negative (loss). We can use the monetary value, or make our own number (for example: 0-100). After that, we can got our decision.
If somebody has more feedback on the consequence (some part that I did not cover), just mention in your comment, and I will modify the tree...
I hope this will make our decision more rational.
Andreas
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Hi Andreas,
ReplyDeleteit looks nice. While I was making the previous decision tree, I was wondering what the consequence for Eagle Racing would be when they not participate in the race as for their sponsorship additional to Goodbridge. As we know, Goodbridge would only sponsor 10 million and Eagle Racing needs at least 8 million more sponsoring. Is it then possible and relevant to include that factor in a decision tree as well?
Adriane
Another thing, as for the consequence when Eagle Racing participates in the race and the engine does not blow up, do you assume the engineer will either quit his job or be fired? Because if neither of those is the case, then the outcome is more favourable...
ReplyDeleteAdriane
i have some idea to accomodate your idea in the decision tree... lets wait for other input, before i make major changes, so we dont need to upload many decision tree...
ReplyDeleteAndreas