Final Decision

With a majority vote of seven votes for and one vote against, Team 7 has finally decided to race and go against the advice of the engineer.

Updated version decision tree focus on Sir Ralphs reaction

Hi guys, I think we have extensively focused on the possible reaction of Sir Ralph. I have marked it in a decision tree without regard of the probabilities since I think that is not relevant at the moment. This tree misses out on the outcomes a race can have on the drivers, the reputation and the employees of Eagle Racing. I think the tree made by Andreas does that very nicely. Should we then post both tomorrow in our conclusion?

How to vote?

Hey guys,
just a quick question...how are we going to vote?
Are we going for a majority vote, meaning that 5 out of our group of 8 have to vote for one decision and maximum 3 against it. Or are we aiming for an unanimous vote?

As far as I can see now we have

Not to race: Chris, and an anonimous person
To race: Maaike, Adriane, Francesco,Andreas,

How about the rest...

Cheers,
Adriane

Discussion

I have read your arguments and I will like to add some counter arguments.

1. I think it is more likely that the engine will blow (almost certain). Obviously you are more like 50-50 and you haven't found any proof. Actually we have proof about it. Firstly there was a failure in the testing laps! Failure in the testing laps means (if nothing changes between) failure during the race when the engine is under a lot more pressure. Secondly the most failures happened at that temperature. That means something about how the engine works under these conditions.

2. Why would Sir Raph wants to sign after the race and not before? That means that his decision will be affected by the result. A blow engine is not a good result for sure. But what if we could rearrange the meeting under less risky conditions?

3. What about drivers' safety? Besides that imagine the reputational loss of a possible injury or death of our driver or others especially if it comes out that we knew about the problem.


Chris

my decision on decision tree

guys,, i know we dont have much time to discuss about the decision tree. so, i make it for my own decision based on my knowledge and experience on decision tree. it changed a little bit from my previous one. if you want to use it as well, you can just change the consequences number (-5 to 5) and change the probability, or add some new consequences. I assign the probability and consequences number on my own opinion  after reading the other post in the blog. the blow up probability is based on last season blow up accident, stated in the movie (i hope i am right about the number, do not check it again)

so, my decision is to race, because the consequences of race (1.23) is better than no race (-1.5). the decision race will not be a very good decision, but no race is a bad decision. this is the dilemma. this decision is my personal decision, and not to push my decision as group decision. it is just my personal way of thinking.

Andreas

Decision

Would everyone please state their decision on whether Eagle Racing should race or not. Please also state your most important reasons supporting your decision.

Cheers

Adriane

Decision tree for convergence

I have made a new decision tree with probability and consequences for our decision convergence.  we can now started discuss the probability and the value of the consequences (or we can based it on our previous discussion on race or no race). The value could be positive (if it is a gain) and negative (loss). We can use the monetary value, or make our own number (for example: 0-100). After that, we can got our decision.

If somebody has more feedback on the consequence (some part that I did not cover), just mention in your comment, and I will modify the tree...

I hope this will make our decision  more rational.


Andreas

Decision Tree

Hey guys, I hope it is readable when I upload it like this... Please make one as well or add comments to improve it.
Cheers, Adriane

Hello all,

first of all, sorry for my late response.

I agree with the structure that is proposed by several people. If I understand it correctly, we will have

-a divergence phase first, where we state our reflections, structured by 2 posts

that cover the opposite options

-a convergence phase afterwards, where we state our opinions.

I think someone mentioned a timeline, but I haven't seen one yet. If there isn't any, I propose that we will continue the divergence phase until saturday evening, so we'll have 4 days left for the convergence phase.

Because the clock is ticking and the group process hasn't really started yet, I'll send an email reminder to the group. To cope with time pressure and other priorities, I propose that all of us will react once everyday (especially in the convergence phase) to ensure a lively discussion and to create a group consensus.  Because even just saying 'I agree', shows that you are taking responsibility for the team decision. Besides, by setting one moment a day, it is less time consuming (instead of monitoring reactions every few hours) and therefore easier for all of us to participate. How about a daily reaction before 9pm, to see what everybody's thougths/opinions are?

Feel free to correct me or even to disagree.

Cheers,

Tim

Not race

Hi,
in this post we can give the reasons why it is a good idea not to race, and the reasons why it would be bad to race.
Maaike

Let's race

Hi,
by reacting on this post we can all give the reasons why it would be a good idea to race, and also give the reasons why it would be a bad idea not to race.
Maaike

Episode 2

Hi everyone :)

I just watched ep 2 and I say let's race! I'd like to see the team race and see how the deal with Goodbridge goes through.
Accidents happen all the time in the racing industry, it is a risk that is required to be taken. Anyone caring to share their thoughts?

x Rianne

Anyone got the link for ep 2?

Hi everyone :)

Does anyone have the link of episode 2? I wanted to watch it.... but couldn't find the link.

x Rianne

Hello

Hello all :)

We still missing almost half of our group. However I would like to make some suggestions. When we will start discuss about episode 2 I recommend  that we use only 1 post (for example the first who has something to say about it, makes the post) and all the others comment on this post. In that way we will not lose the focus of our conversation and everybody could monitor it and not get lost into many posts which include many comments.
In addition I think we should first present our arguments, then conclude to an individual decision and then to a group decision. (as it was proposed in the class). We can make a time line about it.
Lastly I recommend not to write extend analyses but instead get right to the point clearly. (I prefer bullets) We can use a kind of matrix as presented in the class.
What do you think?

Chris

Looking good

Hi all,

well this blog looks very nice, thank you Rianne! I just found how to log in and write a post, going pretty easy actually:-)

Cheers,
Adriane

EagleRacing Team 7 Online!

Hi all!

as of now, our blog is online, and we can resume our decisionmaking through this blog.
Enjoy!

x Rianne