Final Decision

With a majority vote of seven votes for and one vote against, Team 7 has finally decided to race and go against the advice of the engineer.

Updated version decision tree focus on Sir Ralphs reaction

Hi guys, I think we have extensively focused on the possible reaction of Sir Ralph. I have marked it in a decision tree without regard of the probabilities since I think that is not relevant at the moment. This tree misses out on the outcomes a race can have on the drivers, the reputation and the employees of Eagle Racing. I think the tree made by Andreas does that very nicely. Should we then post both tomorrow in our conclusion?

How to vote?

Hey guys,
just a quick question...how are we going to vote?
Are we going for a majority vote, meaning that 5 out of our group of 8 have to vote for one decision and maximum 3 against it. Or are we aiming for an unanimous vote?

As far as I can see now we have

Not to race: Chris, and an anonimous person
To race: Maaike, Adriane, Francesco,Andreas,

How about the rest...

Cheers,
Adriane

Discussion

I have read your arguments and I will like to add some counter arguments.

1. I think it is more likely that the engine will blow (almost certain). Obviously you are more like 50-50 and you haven't found any proof. Actually we have proof about it. Firstly there was a failure in the testing laps! Failure in the testing laps means (if nothing changes between) failure during the race when the engine is under a lot more pressure. Secondly the most failures happened at that temperature. That means something about how the engine works under these conditions.

2. Why would Sir Raph wants to sign after the race and not before? That means that his decision will be affected by the result. A blow engine is not a good result for sure. But what if we could rearrange the meeting under less risky conditions?

3. What about drivers' safety? Besides that imagine the reputational loss of a possible injury or death of our driver or others especially if it comes out that we knew about the problem.


Chris

my decision on decision tree

guys,, i know we dont have much time to discuss about the decision tree. so, i make it for my own decision based on my knowledge and experience on decision tree. it changed a little bit from my previous one. if you want to use it as well, you can just change the consequences number (-5 to 5) and change the probability, or add some new consequences. I assign the probability and consequences number on my own opinion  after reading the other post in the blog. the blow up probability is based on last season blow up accident, stated in the movie (i hope i am right about the number, do not check it again)

so, my decision is to race, because the consequences of race (1.23) is better than no race (-1.5). the decision race will not be a very good decision, but no race is a bad decision. this is the dilemma. this decision is my personal decision, and not to push my decision as group decision. it is just my personal way of thinking.

Andreas

Decision

Would everyone please state their decision on whether Eagle Racing should race or not. Please also state your most important reasons supporting your decision.

Cheers

Adriane

Decision tree for convergence

I have made a new decision tree with probability and consequences for our decision convergence.  we can now started discuss the probability and the value of the consequences (or we can based it on our previous discussion on race or no race). The value could be positive (if it is a gain) and negative (loss). We can use the monetary value, or make our own number (for example: 0-100). After that, we can got our decision.

If somebody has more feedback on the consequence (some part that I did not cover), just mention in your comment, and I will modify the tree...

I hope this will make our decision  more rational.


Andreas